Markets got a jolt of good news on Thursday afternoon. A Reuters report said US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased deal to end the nearly seven-month war. Under the idea, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US would lift its economic blockade of Iran.
The reaction was instant. The Nasdaq 100 cash index jumped about 250 points in minutes, and spot gold spiked roughly $30.
What the Report Said
According to Reuters, a senior Iranian official said the most likely way forward is to solve the crisis in stages, starting with ending the blockade and reopening Hormuz. Iran may also be willing to move its demand for Hormuz transit fees out of the main deal, because ending the blockade has become more urgent.
There are big hurdles. Neither side wants to give up its leverage first, and an earlier deal collapsed in July. Trump has said a deal could come after the November 3 midterm elections.
Former US negotiator Dennis Ross puts the chance of a deal before the vote at just 30%. The same Iranian official also warned that Iran’s “fingers are on the trigger.”
Why It Lifts Sentiment
Hormuz is the key to this whole market. When it is blocked, oil stays high, inflation stays sticky, and the Fed keeps hiking. That is what has pushed the 10-year yield to 2007 highs this week.
A path to reopening Hormuz flips that chain. Lower oil means less inflation, fewer rate hikes and lower yields. That helps tech stocks, whose value depends heavily on future profits. It also helps gold, which pays no interest and struggles when yields rise.
This is why gold rallied on a peace headline, not a fear headline.
Nasdaq 100 Cash Index 15-Minute Chart, September 24, 2026
Source: TradingView
The Nasdaq 100 surged from near 30,250 to a high around 30,460 before easing to about 30,390. It is now back above its session VWAP at 30,279, the average price paid today. Holding above that line keeps buyers in control for the rest of the session.
Gold 15-Minute Chart, September 24, 2026
Source: TradingView
Gold jumped from around $4,258 to a high near $4,289 and is holding near $4,279, right at its 100-period moving average. A close above $4,280 would be the first sign that the pressure from recent days is easing.
The wedge floor at $4,230–$4,240 remains the key support.
What Needs to Happen for Sentiment to Keep Improving
| What to Watch | Improves If | Fades If |
|---|---|---|
| Official Response | White House or State Department confirms talks are moving forward | US denies the plan or restates tough demands |
| Deal Details | A clear first step: blockade eased, ships moving through Hormuz | Talk stalls or is pushed to after the November 3 midterms |
| Oil | Crude keeps falling, easing inflation fears | Crude rebounds as traders doubt the headline |
| Bond Yields | 10-year pulls back from 2007 highs | 10-year pushes back above 5.13% |
| Price Action | Nasdaq holds above VWAP 30,279; gold holds above $4,280 | Both give back the spike by the close |
| Rhetoric | Calm tone from Tehran and Gulf states | New military threats or shipping incidents |
The bottom line: this is a hopeful headline, not a deal. Markets have been fooled by ceasefire hopes several times this year, so traders will want to see follow-through from officials and from oil before trusting the rally.
